A possible resonance mechanism of earthquakes

TL;DR

This paper proposes a resonance-based mechanism where seismic oscillations beat between plate and zone eigenmodes, potentially triggering earthquakes and offering a basis for short-term prediction through monitoring these oscillations.

Contribution

It introduces a novel resonance mechanism explaining earthquake precursors via oscillation beating and suggests monitoring these patterns for earthquake prediction.

Findings

Periodic seismic oscillations are linked to earthquake precursors.

Resonance tuning occurs through tectonic plate compression.

Beating patterns may enable short-term earthquake prediction.

Abstract

It had been observed by Linkov, Petrova and Osipov (1992) that there exist periodic 4-6 hours pulses of 200 microHz seismogravitational oscillations ( SGO ) before 95 % of powerful earthquakes. We explain this by beating between an oscillation eigenmode of a whole tectonic plate and a local eigenmode of an active zone. The beating transfers the oscillation energy from the remote zone of the tectonic plate to the active zone, triggering the earthquake. Oscillation frequencies of the plate and ones of the active zone are tuned to a resonance by an additional compression applied to the active zone due to collision of neighboring plates or the magma flow in the liquid underlay of the astenosphere ( the upper mantle). In the case when there are three or more SGO with incommensurable difference frequencies the SGO beating pattern looks quasi-random, thus masking the non-random nature of the beating process. Nevertheless, we are able to discuss a possibility of the short term earthquakes predictions based on an accurate monitoring of the beating dynamics.