Knowledge-generating Efficiency in Innovation Systems: The relation between structural and temporal effects

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the cycles of knowledge generation in the US innovation system, linking them to long-term economic waves, and models the structural and temporal dynamics to forecast future paradigm shifts.

Contribution

It introduces a model connecting knowledge-generating paradigms with structural and temporal effects, incorporating self-organization and fractal-like network development.

Findings

Knowledge cycles align with Kondratieff waves.

Model parameters match empirical wave regression coefficients.

Fibonacci numbers help forecast paradigm change dates.

Abstract

Using time series of US patents per million inhabitants, knowledge-generating cycles can be distinguished. These cycles partly coincide with Kondratieff long waves. The changes in the slopes between them indicate discontinuities in the knowledge-generating paradigms. The knowledge-generating paradigms can be modeled in terms of interacting dimensions (for example, in university-industry-government relations) that set limits to the maximal efficiency of innovation systems. The maximum values of the parameters in the model are of the same order as the regression coefficients of the empirical waves. The mechanism of the increase in the dimensionality is specified as self-organization which leads to the breaking of existing relations into the more diversified structure of a fractal-like network. This breaking can be modeled in analogy to 2D and 3D (Koch) snowflakes. The boost of knowledge generation leads to newly emerging technologies that can be expected to be more diversified and show shorter life cycles than before. Time spans of the knowledge-generating cycles can also be analyzed in terms of Fibonacci numbers. This perspective allows for forecasting expected dates of future possible paradigm changes. In terms of policy implications, this suggests a shift in focus from the manufacturing technologies to developing new organizational technologies and formats of human interactions