Performance Indicators of Wind Energy Production

TL;DR

This paper models wind speed using an indexed semi-Markov process to evaluate financial indicators of wind energy projects, aiding investment analysis and plant utilization comparison.

Contribution

It introduces a semi-Markov wind speed model for financial assessment and proposes a new indicator for plant utilization comparison.

Findings

The model accurately reproduces wind speed statistical behavior.

Financial indicators computed from the model align with real data.

A new utilization indicator effectively compares power plant efficiency.

Abstract

Modeling wind speed is one of the key element when dealing with the production of energy through wind turbines. A good model can be used for forecasting, site evaluation, turbines design and many other purposes. In this work we are interested in the analysis of the future financial cash flows generated by selling the electrical energy produced. We apply an indexed semi-Markov model of wind speed that has been shown, in previous investigation, to reproduce accurately the statistical behavior of wind speed. The model is applied to the evaluation of financial indicators like the Internal Rate of Return, semi-Elasticity and relative Convexity that are widely used for the assessment of the profitability of an investment and for the measurement and analysis of interest rate risk. We compare the computation of these indicators for real and synthetic data. Moreover, we propose a new indicator that can be used to compare the degree of utilization of different power plants.