Heavy context dependence---decisions of underground soldiers

TL;DR

This paper models the disclosure process of underground soldiers using network theory, focusing on how disclosure spreads among acquaintances, with a historical case study of Polish underground fighters under communist rule.

Contribution

It introduces a network-based simulation approach to analyze the spread of disclosures among underground soldiers, highlighting the coupling mechanism of acquaintance-based disclosure.

Findings

The fraction of disclosed soldiers depends on the likelihood of acquaintances revealing each other.

Simulation results reflect historical disclosure patterns in the Polish Home Army.

Network coupling significantly influences disclosure dynamics.

Abstract

An attempt is made to simulate the disclosure of underground soldiers in terms of theory of networks. The coupling mechanism between the network nodes is the possibility that a disclosed soldier is going to disclose also his acquaintances. We calculate the fraction of disclosed soldiers as dependent on the fraction of those who, once disclosed, reveal also their colleagues. The simulation is immersed in the historical context of the Polish Home Army under the communist rule in 1946-49.