Factors controlling the time-delay between peak CO2 emissions and concentrations

TL;DR

This paper models atmospheric CO2 dynamics with four time-constants to identify factors influencing the delay between peak emissions and concentrations, emphasizing the importance of emission rate ratios and decarbonization speed for early concentration peaks.

Contribution

It introduces a linear model with four time-constants to analyze the factors controlling the delay between emission and concentration peaks, highlighting the role of emission rate ratios and decarbonization timing.

Findings

The delay is mainly affected by the ratio of emission change rates.

Rapid decarbonization reduces the time-delay.

Long atmospheric CO2 time-constants influence peak timing.

Abstract

Carbon-dioxide (CO2) is the main contributor to anthropogenic global warming, and the timing of its peak concentration in the atmosphere is likely to govern the timing of maximum radiative forcing. It is well-known that dynamics of atmospheric CO2 is governed by multiple time-constants, and here we approximate the solutions to a linear model of atmospheric CO2 dynamics with four time-constants to identify factors governing the time-delay between peaks in CO2 emissions and concentrations, and therefore the timing of the concentration peak. The main factor affecting this time-delay is the ratio of the rate of change of emissions during its increasing and decreasing phases. If this ratio is large in magnitude then the time-delay between peak emissions and concentrations is large. Therefore it is important to limit the magnitude of this ratio through mitigation, in order to achieve an early peak in CO2 concentrations. This can be achieved with an early global emissions peak, combined with rapid decarbonization of economic activity, because the delay between peak emissions and concentrations is affected by the time-scale with which decarbonization occurs. Of course, for limiting the magnitude of peak concentrations it is also important to limit the magnitude of emissions throughout its trajectory, but that aspect has been studied elsewhere and is not examined here. The carbon cycle parameters affecting the timing of the concentration peak are primarily the long multi-century time-constant of atmospheric CO2, and the ratio of contributions to the impulse response function of atmospheric CO2 from the infinite time-constant and the long time-constant respectively. Reducing uncertainties in these parameters can reduce uncertainty in forecasts of the radiative forcing peak.