How to collect matches that will catch fire

TL;DR

This paper discusses the challenge of selecting promising early-career astrophysicists by focusing on their skills and growth potential rather than academic lineage, aiming to improve academic planning.

Contribution

It proposes a shift in evaluation criteria towards skills and growth, offering a new perspective on selecting future scientific talent.

Findings

Skills and growth potential are better indicators of future success.

Current selection methods favor academic inheritance over talent.

A new framework for talent identification is suggested.

Abstract

How can we select a cohort of promising astrophysicists before they have made their discoveries? This is the fundamental challenge of academic planning. I argue that science can only blossom if young researchers are rewarded for acquired skills and growth rather than inherited academic ancestry.