Predicting Results of the Research Excellence Framework using Departmental h-Index -- Revisited

TL;DR

This study reevaluates the effectiveness of using departmental h-index to predict UK research assessment outcomes, finding that previous prediction models lack accuracy in forecasting REF 2014 results and institutional ranking changes.

Contribution

The paper critically revisits prior predictive models based on departmental h-index, demonstrating their limitations in accurately forecasting REF 2014 outcomes and institutional movements.

Findings

Predictions did not accurately forecast REF 2014 results.

Models failed to predict institutional ranking changes.

Previous h-index-based models are unreliable for REF outcome prediction.

Abstract

We revisit our recent study [Predicting results of the Research Excellence Framework using departmental h-index, Scientometrics, 2014, 1-16; arXiv:1411.1996] in which we attempted to predict outcomes of the UK's Research Excellence Framework (REF~2014) using the so-called departmental $h$-index. Here we report that our predictions failed to anticipate with any accuracy either overall REF outcomes or movements of individual institutions in the rankings relative to their positions in the previous Research Assessment Exercise (RAE~2008).