Evolution of the 2012 July 12 CME from the Sun to the Earth: Data-Constrained Three-Dimensional MHD Simulations

TL;DR

This study uses data-constrained 3D MHD simulations to model the evolution of the July 12, 2012 CME from the Sun to Earth, successfully reproducing its morphology and dynamics, and improving understanding of CME propagation.

Contribution

The paper introduces a detailed 3D MHD simulation approach constrained by observational data to accurately model CME evolution from the Sun to Earth.

Findings

The simulation reproduces the CME's 3D morphology and evolution.

The model aligns well with in-situ plasma data from Wind spacecraft.

The approach enhances prediction accuracy of CME propagation and shock arrival time.

Abstract

The dynamic process of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere provides us the key information for evaluating CMEs' geo-effectiveness and improving the accurate prediction of CME induced Shock Arrival Time (SAT) at the Earth. We present a data constrained three dimensional (3D) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of the evolution of the CME in a realistic ambient solar wind for the July 12-16, 2012 event by using the 3D COIN-TVD MHD code. A detailed comparison of the kinematic evolution of the CME between the observations and the simulation is carried out, including the usage of the time-elongation maps from the perspectives of both Stereo A and Stereo B. In this case study, we find that our 3D COIN-TVD MHD model, with the magnetized plasma blob as the driver, is able to re-produce relatively well the real 3D nature of the CME in morphology and their evolution from the Sun to Earth. The simulation also provides a relatively satisfactory comparison with the in-situ plasma data from the Wind spacecraft.