Mathematical model for hit phenomena and its application to analyze popularity of weekly tv drama

TL;DR

This paper extends a mathematical model for hit phenomena to analyze and predict the popularity of weekly TV dramas by incorporating social network effects, advertisement, and communication interactions, validated with Japanese TV data.

Contribution

The paper introduces an extended mathematical model that includes social interactions and applies it to analyze TV drama popularity using real viewership data.

Findings

Indirect communication strongly correlates with TV viewing rates.

The model accurately predicts weekly TV drama popularity.

Both real-time and playback view data enhance analysis.

Abstract

Mathematical model for hit phenomena presented by A Ishii et al in 2012 has been extended to analyze and predict a lot of hit subject using social network system. The equation for each individual consumers is assumed and the equation of social response to each hit subject is derived as stochastic process of statistical physics. The advertisement effect is included as external force and the communication effects are included as two-body and three-body interaction. The applications of this model are demonstrated for analyzing population of weekly TV drama. Including both the realtime view data and the playback view data, we found that the indirect communication correlate strongly to the TV viewing rate data for recent Japanese 20 TV drama.