Seasonal variations of EPG Levels in gastro-intestinal parasitic infection in a southeast asian controlled locale: a statistical analysis

TL;DR

This study analyzes how seasonal rainfall influences gastrointestinal parasitic infection levels in livestock, revealing oscillatory patterns and a super diffusive growth regime linked to rainfall fluctuations.

Contribution

It provides a novel statistical analysis of EPG levels showing rainfall as the dominant factor and identifies a super diffusive infection growth pattern related to rainfall intensity.

Findings

Rainfall is the primary variable affecting EPG levels.

EPG levels oscillate with rainfall fluctuations.

High rainfall correlates with super diffusive infection growth.

Abstract

We present a data based statistical study on the effects of seasonal variations in the growth rates of the gastro-intestinal (GI) parasitic infection in livestock. The alluded growth rate is estimated through the variation in the number of eggs per gram (EPG) of faeces in animals. In accordance with earlier studies, our analysis too shows that rainfall is the dominant variable in determining EPG infection rates compared to other macro-parameters like temperature and humidity. Our statistical analysis clearly indicates an oscillatory dependence of EPG levels on rainfall fluctuations. Monsoon recorded the highest infection with a comparative increase of at least 2.5 times compared to the next most infected period (summer). A least square fit of the EPG versus rainfall data indicates an approach towards a super diffusive (i. e. root mean square displacement growing faster than the square root of the elapsed time as obtained for simple diffusion) infection growth pattern regime for low rainfall regimes (technically defined as zeroth level dependence) that gets remarkably augmented for large rainfall zones. Our analysis further indicates that for low fluctuations in temperature (true on the bulk data), EPG level saturates beyond a critical value of the rainfall, a threshold that is expected to indicate the onset of the nonlinear regime. The probability density functions (PDFs) of the EPG data show oscillatory behavior in the large rainfall regime (greater than 500 mm), the frequency of oscillation, once again, being determined by the ambient wetness (rainfall, and humidity). Data recorded over three pilot projects spanning three measures of rainfall and humidity bear testimony to the universality of this statistical argument.