The orbit and dynamical evolution of the Chelyabinsk object

TL;DR

This study calculates the orbit of the Chelyabinsk object and investigates its past dynamical evolution, revealing a high likelihood of solar collision and potential links to specific parent bodies, with implications for its exposure age.

Contribution

It provides a detailed orbital calculation and dynamical evolution analysis of the Chelyabinsk object, including potential parent body associations and solar encounter timing.

Findings

Majority of clones reach near-Sun state

67% of objects collide with the Sun within 15 Myr

Most encounters with the Sun occurred 0.8 to 2 million years ago

Abstract

The orbit of the Chelyabinsk object is calculated, applying the least-squares method directly to astrometric positions. The dynamical evolution of this object in the past is studied by integrating equations of motion for particles with orbits from the confidence region. It is found that the majority of the Chelyabinsk clones reach the near-Sun state. 67 percent of these objects have collisions with the Sun for 15 Myr in our numerical simulations. The distribution of minimum solar distances shows that the most probable time for the encounters of the Chelyabinsk object with the Sun lies in the interval from -0.8 Myr to -2 Myr. This is consistent with the estimate of a cosmic ray exposure age of 1.2 Myr (Popova et al 2013). A parent body of the Chelyabinsk object should experience strong tidal and thermal effects at this time. The possible association of the Chelyabinsk object with 86039 (1999 NC43) and 2008 DJ is discussed.