Dynamics of Ebola epidemics in West Africa 2014

TL;DR

This study models Ebola transmission dynamics in West Africa during 2014, emphasizing the impact of infectiousness duration on epidemic control and providing scenario-based predictions for epidemic progression.

Contribution

Introduces a linear model incorporating infectiousness duration as a key parameter to analyze Ebola epidemic dynamics and predict future trends.

Findings

Reproduction numbers estimated for different time intervals

Predictions vary based on infectiousness duration scenarios

Epidemic end estimates depend on control measures

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamics of Ebola virus transmission in West Africa during 2014. The reproduction numbers for the total period of epidemic and for different consequent time intervals are estimated based on a newly suggested linear model. It contains one major variable - the average time of infectiousness (time from onset to hospitalization) that is considered as a parameter for controlling the future dynamics of epidemics. Numerical implementations are carried out on data collected from three countries Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia as well as the total data collected worldwide. Predictions are provided by considering different scenarios involving the average times of infectiousness for the next few months and the end of the current epidemic is estimated according to each scenario.