Competing opinions and stubbornness: connecting models to data

TL;DR

This paper presents a unified contagion-like model for competing opinions incorporating dynamic resistance, successfully explaining various empirical voting and opinion dynamics phenomena.

Contribution

It introduces a novel, general model connecting multiple observed social opinion phenomena under a single framework.

Findings

Model describes vote distributions and spatial correlations

Captures slow convergence to consensus

Aligns with empirical data using realistic parameters

Abstract

We introduce a general contagion-like model for competing opinions that includes dynamic resistance to alternative opinions. We show that this model can describe candidate vote distributions, spatial vote correlations, and a slow approach to opinion consensus with sensible parameter values. These empirical properties of large group dynamics, previously understood using distinct models, may be different aspects of human behavior that can be captured by a more unified model, such as the one introduced in this paper.