Uncertainty in climate science and climate policy

TL;DR

This paper discusses the disconnect between academic climate science and policy needs, highlighting how current scientific practices may limit effective climate policy development due to over-reliance on detailed models and discomfort with uncertainty.

Contribution

It identifies key gaps in mainstream climate science's ability to inform policy and advocates for a more transparent approach to climate uncertainty in scientific assessments.

Findings

Academic climate science overemphasizes high-resolution models.

Current culture avoids addressing climate uncertainty subjectively.

Bridging the gap can improve policy decision-making.

Abstract

This essay, written by a statistician and a climate scientist, describes our view of the gap that exists between current practice in mainstream climate science, and the practical needs of policymakers charged with exploring possible interventions in the context of climate change. By `mainstream' we mean the type of climate science that dominates in universities and research centres, which we will term `academic' climate science, in contrast to `policy' climate science; aspects of this distinction will become clearer in what follows. In a nutshell, we do not think that academic climate science equips climate scientists to be as helpful as they might be, when involved in climate policy assessment. Partly, we attribute this to an over-investment in high resolution climate simulators, and partly to a culture that is uncomfortable with the inherently subjective nature of climate uncertainty.