An experimentalist's view of the uncertainties in understanding heavy element synthesis

TL;DR

This paper examines the uncertainties in predicting heavy element synthesis cross sections, highlighting that current models can vary by at least an order of magnitude, especially in hot fusion reactions.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of the sources of uncertainties in heavy element synthesis predictions, emphasizing the significant variability in cross section calculations.

Findings

Predicted cross sections are uncertain by at least one order of magnitude.

Uncertainties mainly stem from capture, fusion, and survival probability calculations.

Focus on hot fusion reactions reveals significant variability in predictions.

Abstract

The overall uncertainties in predicting heavy element synthesis cross sections are examined in terms of the uncertainties associated with the calculations of capture cross sections, fusion probabilities and survival probabilities. Attention is focussed on hot fusion reactions. The predicted heavy element formation cross sections are uncertain to at least one order of magnitude.