Statistical Evidence for Contributions of Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections to Major Solar Energetic Particle Events

TL;DR

This study statistically analyzes the relationships between solar energetic particle event intensities and solar activity parameters, finding that CME speed and SXR fluence significantly influence SEP intensities, indicating contributions from both flare and CME shock acceleration.

Contribution

It introduces partial correlation analysis to disentangle effects of correlated solar parameters, providing new statistical evidence of dual contributions to SEP events from flares and CMEs.

Findings

CME speed and SXR fluence significantly affect SEP intensities.

Classical correlations show broad scatter and strong inter-parameter correlations.

Partial correlation analysis isolates key parameters influencing SEP intensities.

Abstract

Solar energetic particle (SEP) events are related to flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). This work is a new investigation of statistical relationships between SEP peak intensities - deka-MeV protons and near-relativistic electrons - and characteristic quantities of the associated solar activity. We consider the speed of the CME and quantities describing the flare-related energy release: peak flux and fluence of soft X-ray (SXR) emission, fluence of microwave emission. The sample comprises 38 SEP events associated with strong SXR bursts (classes M and X) in the western solar hemisphere between 1997 and 2006, and where the flare-related particle acceleration is accompanied by radio bursts indicating electron escape to the interplanetary space. The main distinction of the present statistical analysis from earlier work is that besides the classical Pearson correlation coefficient the partial correlation coefficients are calculated in order to disentangle the effects of correlations between the solar parameters themselves. The classical correlation analysis shows the usual picture of correlations with broad scatter between SEP peak intensities and the different parameters of solar activity, and strong correlations between the solar activity parameters themselves. The partial correlation analysis shows that the only parameters that affect significantly the SEP intensity are the CME speed and the SXR fluence. The SXR peak flux and the microwave fluence have no additional contribution. We conclude that these findings bring statistical evidence that both flare acceleration and CME shock acceleration contribute to the deka-MeV proton and near-relativistic electron populations in large SEP events.