State model for partly undetected non-communicable diseases (NCDs)

TL;DR

This paper introduces an age-structured compartment model for non-communicable diseases that accounts for undiagnosed pre-clinical states and differential mortality, enhancing disease progression understanding.

Contribution

It presents a novel model incorporating undiagnosed disease states and differential mortality, applicable to realistic disease scenarios.

Findings

Model effectively captures pre-clinical undiagnosed states.

Can handle different mortality rates in disease stages.

Validated with hypothetical disease data.

Abstract

This article proposes an age-structured compartment model for irreversible diseases with a pre-clinical state of undiagnosed cases that precedes the diagnosis. The model is able to cope with mortality rates differing between the pre-clinical and the clinical state (differential mortality). Applicability is tested in a hypothetical disease with realistic incidence and mortality rates.