TL;DR
This paper models ENSO as a response to a Mathieu/Hill differential equation representing water sloshing, influenced by atmospheric and solar factors, identifying a regime change in 1980.
Contribution
It introduces a novel physical model of ENSO dynamics using a second-order Mathieu/Hill differential equation with periodic forcing.
Findings
Identified a regime change in ENSO behavior in 1980
Linked ENSO variability to water sloshing dynamics
Connected atmospheric and solar influences to ENSO modeling
Abstract
The El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) behavior can be effectively modeled as a response to a 2nd-order Mathieu/Hill differential equation with periodic coefficients describing sloshing of a volume of water. The forcing of the equation derives from QBO, angular momentum changes synchronized with the Chandler wobble, and solar insolation variations. One regime change was identified in 1980. (See floating note)
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Taxonomy
TopicsOceanographic and Atmospheric Processes · Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research · Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations