Redistricting and the Will of the People

TL;DR

This paper introduces a non-partisan method for generating North Carolina redistrictings and shows that typical districtings can significantly distort election outcomes, raising concerns about democratic representation.

Contribution

It presents a new probabilistic approach to redistricting emphasizing fairness and analyzes its impact on election results, highlighting potential distortions.

Findings

Random redistrictings yield 6-9 Democrats, contrasting with actual 4 in 2012.

Redistricting can significantly alter election outcomes from voter preferences.

The method questions the fairness of traditional districting practices.

Abstract

We introduce a non-partisan probability distribution on congressional redistricting of North Carolina which emphasizes the equal partition of the population and the compactness of districts. When random districts are drawn and the results of the 2012 election were re-tabulated under the drawn districtings, we find that an average of 7.6 democratic representatives are elected. 95% of the randomly sampled redistrictings produced between 6 and 9 Democrats. Both of these facts are in stark contrast with the 4 Democrats elected in the 2012 elections with the same vote counts. This brings into serious question the idea that such elections represent the "will of the people." It underlines the ability of redistricting to undermine the democratic process, while on the face allowing democracy to proceed.