A simple interpretation of the growth of scientific/technological research impact leading to hype-type evolution curves

TL;DR

This paper presents a simple model explaining the growth of scientific impact and technological development, leading to hype curves, by linking publication growth to patent activity through logistic and integral functions.

Contribution

It introduces a basic model connecting scientific publication growth to technological progress, providing a theoretical basis for hype-type evolution curves.

Findings

The scientific interest follows a logistic growth curve.

Technological development can be modeled as the integral of scientific interest.

The model is validated with bibliometric data on OLED research and patents.

Abstract

The empirical and theoretical justification of Gartner hype curves is a very relevant open question in the field of Technological Life Cycle analysis. The scope of the present paper is to introduce a simple model describing the growth of scientific/technological research impact, in the specific case where science is the main source of a new idea driving a technological development, leading to hype-type evolution curves. The main idea of the model is that, in a first stage, the growth of the scientific interest of a new specific field (as can be measured by publication numbers) basically follows the classical logistic growth curve. At a second stage, starting at a later trigger time, the technological development based on that scientific idea (as can be measured by patent deposits) can be described as the integral (in a mathematical sense) of the first curve, since technology is based on the overall accumulated scientific knowledge. The model is tested through a bibliometric analysis of the publication and patent deposit rate for Organic Light Emitting Diodes (OLED) scientific research and technology, as well as for other emerging technologies.