On the Covariance of ICP-based Scan-matching Techniques
Silv\`ere Bonnabel, Martin Barczyk, Fran\c{c}ois Goulette

TL;DR
This paper analyzes the covariance estimation of ICP-based scan-matching, revealing limitations of existing formulas, especially for point-to-point ICP, and validating the approach for point-to-plane ICP through mathematical proof and experiments.
Contribution
It clarifies when covariance formulas for ICP are valid, providing a formal proof for point-to-plane ICP and highlighting issues with point-to-point ICP covariance estimation.
Findings
Existing covariance formulas are invalid for point-to-point ICP due to rematching issues.
The covariance estimation approach is mathematically validated for point-to-plane ICP.
Experimental results support the theoretical findings on ICP covariance accuracy.
Abstract
This paper considers the problem of estimating the covariance of roto-translations computed by the Iterative Closest Point (ICP) algorithm. The problem is relevant for localization of mobile robots and vehicles equipped with depth-sensing cameras (e.g., Kinect) or Lidar (e.g., Velodyne). The closed-form formulas for covariance proposed in previous literature generally build upon the fact that the solution to ICP is obtained by minimizing a linear least-squares problem. In this paper, we show this approach needs caution because the rematching step of the algorithm is not explicitly accounted for, and applying it to the point-to-point version of ICP leads to completely erroneous covariances. We then provide a formal mathematical proof why the approach is valid in the point-to-plane version of ICP, which validates the intuition and experimental results of practitioners.
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