Tipping points near a delayed saddle node bifurcation with periodic forcing

TL;DR

This paper investigates how periodic forcing influences the timing of tipping points near saddle node bifurcations, revealing that high frequency oscillations can cause earlier transitions, with effects depending on amplitude, frequency, and phase.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of how periodic forcing affects tipping points in saddle node bifurcations, including the derivation of conditions for early tipping based on amplitude and frequency.

Findings

High frequency forcing causes earlier tipping proportional to the square of amplitude-to-frequency ratio.

Low frequency forcing's impact depends on amplitude, frequency, and phase of oscillation.

Critical amplitudes lead to jumps in tipping point location, significantly advancing the transition.

Abstract

We consider the effect on tipping from an additive periodic forcing in a canonical model with a saddle node bifurcation and a slowly varying bifurcation parameter. Here tipping refers to the dramatic change in dynamical behavior characterized by a rapid transition away from a previously attracting state. In the absence of the periodic forcing, it is well-known that a slowly varying bifurcation parameter produces a delay in this transition, beyond the bifurcation point for the static case. Using a multiple scales analysis, we consider the effect of amplitude and frequency of the periodic forcing relative to the drifting rate of the slowly varying bifurcation parameter. We show that a high frequency oscillation drives an earlier tipping when the bifurcation parameter varies more slowly, with the advance of the tipping point proportional to the square of the ratio of amplitude to frequency. In the low frequency case the position of the tipping point is affected by the frequency, amplitude and phase of the oscillation. The results are based on an analysis of the local concavity of the trajectory, used for low frequencies both of the same order as the drifting rate of the bifurcation parameter and for low frequencies larger than the drifting rate. The tipping point location is advanced with increased amplitude of the periodic forcing, with critical amplitudes where there are jumps in the location, yielding significant advances in the tipping point. We demonstrate the analysis for two applications with saddle node-type bifurcations.