Predicting commuter flows in spatial networks using a radiation model based on temporal ranges

TL;DR

This paper introduces a first-principles method for predicting commuter flows in large transportation networks by generalizing the radiation model with travel time costs, enabling accurate and efficient traffic flow estimation.

Contribution

It presents a novel cost-based generalization of the radiation model combined with a cost-minimizing algorithm for traffic prediction in spatial networks.

Findings

High correlation (0.75) with real traffic data

Efficient computation using range-limited betweenness calculation

Captures lognormal distribution of traffic flows

Abstract

Understanding network flows such as commuter traffic in large transportation networks is an ongoing challenge due to the complex nature of the transportation infrastructure and of human mobility. Here we show a first-principles based method for traffic prediction using a cost based generalization of the radiation model for human mobility, coupled with a cost-minimizing algorithm for efficient distribution of the mobility fluxes through the network. Using US census and highway traffic data we show that traffic can efficiently and accurately be computed from a range-limited, network betweenness type calculation. The model based on travel time costs captures the lognormal distribution of the traffic and attains a high Pearson correlation coefficient (0.75) when compared to real traffic. Due to its principled nature, this method can inform many applications related to human mobility driven flows in spatial networks, ranging from transportation, through urban planning to mitigation of the effects of catastrophic events.