Revisiting Francis Galton's Forecasting Competition

TL;DR

This paper reexamines Galton's 1907 weight-judging data, highlighting its relevance as an early example of forecast combination and asymmetric distribution modeling in statistical forecasting.

Contribution

It corrects historical data errors and links Galton's competition to modern forecasting methods like forecast combination and asymmetric distribution use.

Findings

Mean forecast matches actual outcome in Galton's data

Demonstrates early use of forecast combination concepts

Highlights application of two-piece distributions for asymmetry

Abstract

This note reexamines the data from a weight-judging competition described in an article by Francis Galton published in 1907. Following the correction of some errors, it is shown that this forecasting competition is an interesting precursor of two more recent developments in the statistical forecasting literature. One is forecast combination, with the mean forecast here exactly coinciding with the outcome, and the second is the use of two-piece frequency and probability distributions to describe asymmetry.