A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing

TL;DR

This paper develops a differential equations model for the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa, incorporating contact tracing features to evaluate their impact on epidemic containment through data fitting and projections.

Contribution

It introduces a novel contact tracing model for Ebola, integrating key features and fitting it to real data to assess containment strategies.

Findings

Contact tracing significantly impacts epidemic control.

Model projections highlight the importance of contact tracing efficiency.

Fitted models accurately reflect observed case data.

Abstract

A differential equations model is developed for the 2014 Ebola epidemics in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea. The model describes the dynamic interactions of the susceptible and infected populations of these countries. The model incorporates the principle features of contact tracing, namely, the number of contacts per identified infectious case, the likelihood that a traced contact is either incubating or infectious, and the efficiency of the contact tracing process.The model is first fitted to current cumulative reported case data in each country. The data fitted simulations are then projected forward in time, with varying parameter regimes corresponding to contact tracing efficiencies. These projections quantify the importance of the identification, isolation, and contact tracing processes for containment of the epidemics.