A mathematical model about human infections of H7N9 influenza in China with the intervention of live poultry markets closing

TL;DR

This study presents a mathematical model to evaluate how closing live poultry markets impacts the spread of H7N9 influenza in China, aiding public health decision-making.

Contribution

It introduces a differential equations model incorporating poultry-human contact and virus circulation among poultry, with a method to estimate contact rates from market closure data.

Findings

Model can estimate contact rate changes from market closure data

Provides a framework for assessing intervention effectiveness

Suggests parameter sets for future simulations

Abstract

This paper develops a deterministic differential equations model that captures the H7N9 virus transmission from live poultry to human via poultry-human contacts in live poultry markets (LPMs). The virus circulation among live poultry, which happens but is hard to be detected (since contaminated live poultry appear to be asymptomatic), is also incorporated in the model. The time-dependent contact rate between human and live poultry based on LPMs closing information can be estimated. From data of LPMs closing news, the contact rate function can be easily estimated. This model could serve as a rational basis for public health authorities to evaluate the effectiveness of LPM closing, as well as other interventions according to simple modifications. Without data about daily cases, I also provide suggestions for some of the basic parameters that would be a useful fitness parameter set for future simulation.