Phenotypic landscape inference reveals multiple evolutionary paths to C$_4$ photosynthesis
Ben P. Williams, Iain G. Johnston, Sarah Covshoff, Julian M. Hibberd

TL;DR
This study uncovers multiple evolutionary routes to C$_4$ photosynthesis, demonstrating that its development is flexible and driven by non-photosynthetic factors, which explains its convergent evolution across diverse plant lineages.
Contribution
The paper introduces a novel Bayesian hidden Markov model approach to infer the phenotypic landscape and evolutionary trajectories leading to C$_4$ photosynthesis.
Findings
C$_4$ photosynthesis evolved via four major trajectories.
Evolutionary paths are influenced by ancestral lineage and initial phenotypic changes.
The order of trait acquisition in C$_4$ evolution is highly flexible.
Abstract
C photosynthesis has independently evolved from the ancestral C pathway in at least 60 plant lineages, but, as with other complex traits, how it evolved is unclear. Here we show that the polyphyletic appearance of C photosynthesis is associated with diverse and flexible evolutionary paths that group into four major trajectories. We conducted a meta-analysis of 18 lineages containing species that use C, C, or intermediate C-C forms of photosynthesis to parameterise a 16-dimensional phenotypic landscape. We then developed and experimentally verified a novel Bayesian approach based on a hidden Markov model that predicts how the C phenotype evolved. The alternative evolutionary histories underlying the appearance of C photosynthesis were determined by ancestral lineage and initial phenotypic alterations unrelated to photosynthesis. We conclude that the…
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