Seasonality effects on Dengue: basic reproduction number, sensitivity analysis and optimal control

TL;DR

This paper models how seasonal variations affect dengue transmission, analyzing the basic reproduction number, parameter sensitivity, and proposing an optimal control strategy balancing disease reduction and control costs.

Contribution

It introduces a dengue transmission model incorporating seasonality effects and performs sensitivity analysis and optimal control, which are novel in this context.

Findings

Seasonality significantly impacts dengue transmission dynamics.

The basic reproduction number varies with seasonal factors.

Optimal control balances disease reduction with insecticide costs.

Abstract

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted from an infected human to an Aedes mosquito, during a blood-meal. Dengue is still a major public health problem. A model for the disease transmission is presented, composed by human and mosquitoes compartments. The aim is to simulate the effects of seasonality, on the vectorial capacity and, consequently, on the disease development. Using entomological information about the mosquito behavior under different temperatures and rainfall, simulations are carried out and the repercussions analyzed. The basic reproduction number of the model is given, as well as a sensitivity analysis of model's parameters. Finally, an optimal control problem is proposed and solved, illustrating the difficulty of making a trade-off between reduction of infected individuals and costs with insecticide.