Determination of a temporally and spatially resolved Supernova rate from OB-stars within 5kpc

TL;DR

This study estimates the future supernova rate in the Solar vicinity and Galaxy by analyzing massive stars' properties, providing spatially and temporally resolved predictions useful for neutron star and gravitational wave research.

Contribution

It introduces a method to predict future supernova events by combining observational data with evolutionary models, offering a detailed spatial and temporal supernova rate map.

Findings

Within 600pc, the supernova rate is 5-6 times higher than the Galactic average.

90% of future supernovae occur in 7-12% of the sky area.

The method predicts locations of young neutron stars for gravitational wave detection.

Abstract

We spatially and temporally resolve the future Supernova (SN) rate in the Solar vicinity and the whole Galaxy by comparing observational parameters of massive stars with theoretical models for estimating age and mass and, hence, the remaining life-time until the SN explosion. Our SN rate derived in time and space for the future (few Myr) should be the same as in the last few Myr by assuming a constant rate. From BVRIJHK photometry, parallax, spectral type, and luminosity class we compile a Hertzsprung-Russell diagram (H-R D) for 25027 massive stars and derive extinction, and luminosity, then mass, age, and remaining life-time from evolutionary models. Within 600pc our sample of SN progenitors and, hence, SN prediction, is complete, and all future SN events of our sample stars take place in 8% of the area of the sky, whereas 90% of the events take place in 7% of the area of the sky. The current SN rate within 600pc is increased by a factor of 5-6 compared with the Galactic rate. For a distance of 5kpc our sample is incomplete, nevertheless 90% of those SN events take place in only 12% of the area of the projected sky. If the SN rate in the near future is the same as the recent past, there should be unknown young neutron stars concentrated in those areas. Our distribution can be used as input for constraints of gravitational waves detection and for neutron star searches.