On the Frequency of Potential Venus Analogs from Kepler Data

TL;DR

This paper estimates the frequency of Venus-like exoplanets in the Kepler data by defining a Venus Zone based on insolation limits, identifying 43 potential Venus analogs and calculating their occurrence rates around different star types.

Contribution

It introduces the concept of a Venus Zone to classify potential Venus analogs and provides the first occurrence rate estimates for such planets from Kepler data.

Findings

Identified 43 potential Venus analogs in Kepler data.

Estimated occurrence rates of Venus analogs: 0.32 for M dwarfs and 0.45 for GK dwarfs.

Defined a Venus Zone based on insolation and atmospheric erosion limits.

Abstract

The field of exoplanetary science has seen a dramatic improvement in sensitivity to terrestrial planets over recent years. Such discoveries have been a key feature of results from the {\it Kepler} mission which utilizes the transit method to determine the size of the planet. These discoveries have resulted in a corresponding interest in the topic of the Habitable Zone (HZ) and the search for potential Earth analogs. Within the Solar System, there is a clear dichotomy between Venus and Earth in terms of atmospheric evolution, likely the result of the large difference ($\sim$ factor of two) in incident flux from the Sun. Since Venus is 95\% of the Earth's radius in size, it is impossible to distinguish between these two planets based only on size. In this paper we discuss planetary insolation in the context of atmospheric erosion and runaway greenhouse limits for planets similar to Venus. We define a ``Venus Zone'' (VZ) in which the planet is more likely to be a Venus analog rather than an Earth analog. We identify 43 potential Venus analogs with an occurrence rate ($\eta_{\venus}$) of $0.32^{+0.05}_{-0.07}$ and $0.45^{+0.06}_{-0.09}$ for M dwarfs and GK dwarfs respectively.