Estimate of Solar Maximum using the 1-8 \AA$\,$Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites X-ray Measurements

TL;DR

This paper introduces a method to estimate the solar cycle's progression and maximum using GOES satellite X-ray background data, providing a new approach to solar activity monitoring.

Contribution

The study presents a novel technique for determining solar cycle phases by analyzing X-ray background levels from GOES satellites, aligning well with NOAA predictions.

Findings

Solar maximum in Cycle 24 occurred in late 2013.

X-ray background levels effectively track solar cycle progression.

Method provides timely estimates of solar maximum.

Abstract

We present an alternate method of determining the progression of the solar cycle through an analysis of the solar X-ray background. Our results are based on the NOAA Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) X-ray data in the 1-8 \AA$\,$band from 1986 - present, covering solar cycles 22, 23, and 24. The X-ray background level tracks the progression of the solar cycle through its maximum and minimum. Using the X-ray data, we can therefore make estimates of the solar cycle progression and date of solar maximum. Based upon our analysis, we conclude that the Sun reached its hemisphere-averaged maximum in Solar Cycle 24 in late 2013. This is within six months of the NOAA prediction of a maximum in Spring 2013.