Synergy cycles in the Norwegian innovation system: The relation between synergy and cycle values

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the dynamic behavior of synergy in the Norwegian innovation system by examining its oscillatory patterns over time, revealing predictable, non-chaotic fluctuations linked to natural frequencies and synergy levels.

Contribution

It introduces a spectral analysis approach to study the temporal dynamics of synergy in innovation systems, extending static measures with a novel time dimension.

Findings

Synergy exhibits non-chaotic oscillatory behavior.

Synergy fluctuations are linked to natural frequencies.

Higher synergy correlates with increased volatility and long-term shifts.

Abstract

The knowledge base of an economy measured in terms of Triple Helix relations can be analyzed in terms of mutual information among geographical, sectorial, and size distributions of firms as dimensions of the probabilistic entropy. The resulting synergy values of a TH system provide static snapshots. In this study, we add the time dimension and analyze the synergy dynamics using the Norwegian innovation system as an example. The synergy among the three dimensions can be mapped as a set of partial time series and spectrally analyzed. The results suggest that the synergy at the level of both the country and its 19 counties shoe non-chaotic oscillatory behavior and resonates in a set of natural frequencies. That is, synergy surges and drops are non-random and can be analyzed and predicted. There is a proportional dependence between the amplitudes of oscillations and synergy values and an inverse proportional dependence between the oscillation frequencies' relative inputs and synergy values. This analysis of the data informs us that one can expect frequency-related synergy-volatility growth in relation to the synergy value and a shift in the synergy volatility towards the long-term fluctuations with the synergy growth.