Modelling total solar irradiance since 1878 from simulated magnetograms

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new model for total solar irradiance (TSI) from 1878 using simulated magnetograms and the SATIRE model, improving historical TSI reconstructions and understanding solar magnetic activity.

Contribution

The paper develops a novel TSI model based on simulated magnetograms and ephemeral region cycles, extending the reconstruction back to 1878 with improved accuracy.

Findings

Model reproduces TSI measurements from 1978 accurately.

Simulated magnetograms offer a realistic evolution of solar magnetic fields.

Secular TSI increase since 1878 is stable despite ephemeral flux treatment.

Abstract

We present a new model of total solar irradiance (TSI) based on magnetograms simulated with a surface flux transport model (SFTM) and the SATIRE (Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions) model. Our model provides daily maps of the distribution of the photospheric field and the TSI starting from 1878. We first calculate the magnetic flux on the solar surface emerging in active and ephemeral regions. The evolution of the magnetic flux in active regions is computed using a surface flux transport model fed with the observed record of sunspot group areas and positions. The magnetic flux in ephemeral regions is treated separately using the concept of overlapping cycles. To model the ephemeral region cycles, we assume that their length and amplitude are related to that of the sunspot cycles. We then use a version of the SATIRE model to compute the TSI. The area coverage and the distribution of different magnetic features as a function of time, which are required by SATIRE, are extracted from the simulated magnetograms and the modelled ephemeral region magnetic flux. Previously computed intensity spectra of the various types of magnetic features are employed. Our model reproduces the PMOD composite of TSI measurements starting from 1978 at daily and rotational timescales more accurately than the previous version of the SATIRE model computing TSI over this period of time. The simulated magnetograms provide a more realistic representation of the evolution of the magnetic field on the photosphere and also allow us to make use of information on the spatial distribution of the magnetic fields before the times when observed magnetograms were available. We find that the secular increase in TSI since 1878 is fairly stable to modifications of the treatment of the ephemeral region magnetic flux.