The effect of macromodel uncertainties on microlensing modelling of lensed quasars

TL;DR

This paper investigates how uncertainties in galaxy lens models affect microlensing simulations of quasars, aiming to improve the reliability of accretion disc measurements in upcoming large surveys.

Contribution

It analyzes the impact of macromodel uncertainties on microlensing magnification maps using a large parameter survey, providing strategies to mitigate systematic errors.

Findings

Identifies regions in parameter space where model uncertainties significantly alter magnification maps.

Provides a comprehensive analysis of how macromodel errors propagate into microlensing constraints.

Discusses mitigation strategies for systematic errors in future large-scale microlensing studies.

Abstract

Cosmological gravitational microlensing has been proven to be a powerful tool to constrain the structure of multiply imaged quasars, especially the accretion disc and central supermassive black-hole system. However, the derived constraints on models may be affected by large systematic errors introduced in the various stages of modelling, namely, the macromodels, the microlensing magnification maps, and the convolution with realistic disc profiles. In particular, it has been known that different macromodels of the galaxy lens that fit the observations equally well, can lead to different values of convergence, $\kappa$, and shear, $\gamma$, required to generate magnification maps. So far, 25 microlensed quasars have been studied using microlensing techniques, where each system has been modelled and analyzed individually, or in small samples. This is about to change due to the upcoming synoptic all-sky surveys, which are expected to discover thousands of quasars suitable for microlensing studies. In the present study we investigate the connection between macromodels of the galaxy lens and microlensing magnification maps throughout the parameter space in preparation for future studies of large statistical samples of systems displaying microlensing. In particular, we use 55,900 maps produced by the GERLUMPH parameter survey (available online at http://gerlumph.swin.edu.au ) and identify regions of parameter space where macromodel uncertainties ($\Delta\kappa$,$\Delta\gamma$) lead to statistically different magnification maps. Strategies for mitigating the effect of $\Delta\kappa$,$\Delta\gamma$ uncertainties are discussed in order to understand and control this potential source of systematic errors in accretion disc constraints derived from microlensing.