Predicting a third planet in the Kepler-47 circumbinary system

TL;DR

This study investigates the potential existence and orbital characteristics of a third planet in the Kepler-47 system, using stability analysis and transit duration data to constrain its possible orbit.

Contribution

The paper introduces a method combining stability analysis and transit data to predict the orbit of a potential third planet in Kepler-47, providing new constraints on its possible orbital parameters.

Findings

Identified stable orbital regions for a third planet in Kepler-47.

Constrained the third planet's orbital period to be less than 424 days.

Suggested the third planet likely has a low eccentricity orbit within 1.24 AU.

Abstract

We have studied the possibility that a third circumbinary planet in the Kepler-47 planetary system be the source of the single unexplained transiting event reported during the discovery of these planets. We applied the MEGNO technique to identify regions in the phase space where a third planet can maintain quasi-periodic orbits, and assessed the long-term stability of the three-planet system by integrating the entire 5 bodies (binary + planets) for 10 Myr. We identified several stable regions between the two known planets as well as a region beyond the orbit of Kepler-47c where the orbit of the third planet could be stable. To constrain the orbit of this planet, we used the measured duration of the unexplained transit event ($\sim 4.15$ hours) and compared that with the transit duration of the third planet in an ensemble of stable orbits. To remove the degeneracy among the orbits with similar transit durations, we considered the planet to be in a circular orbit and calculated its period analytically. The latter places an upper limit of 424 days on the orbital period of the third planet. Our analysis suggests that if the unexplained transit event detected during the discovery of the Kepler-47 circumbinary system is due to a planetary object, this planet will be in a low eccentricity orbit with a semimajor axis smaller than 1.24 AU. Further constraining of the mass and orbital elements of this planet requires a re-analysis of the entire currently available data including those obtained post-announcement of the discovery of this system. We present details of our methodology and discuss the implication of the results.