A new probabilistic shift away from seismic hazard reality in Italy?

TL;DR

This study compares probabilistic and neo-deterministic seismic hazard maps for Italy against historical earthquake data, finding neo-deterministic models, especially with fixed return periods, align better with observed ground shaking.

Contribution

It provides a rigorous comparative analysis of existing seismic hazard maps, highlighting the superior performance of neo-deterministic models over probabilistic ones in Italy.

Findings

Neo-deterministic maps with fixed return periods fit observations better.

Probabilistic models tend to overestimate hazard levels below intensity IX.

Neo-deterministic approach outperforms probabilistic methods in goodness of fit.

Abstract

Objective testing is a key issue in the process of revision and improvement of seismic hazard assessments. Therefore we continue the rigorous comparative analysis of past and newly available hazard maps for the territory of Italy against the seismic activity observed in reality. The final Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program (GSHAP) results and the most recent version of Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) project maps, along with the reference hazard maps for the Italian seismic code, all obtained by probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), are cross-compared to the three ground shaking maps based on the duly physically and mathematically rooted neo-deterministic approach (NDSHA). These eight hazard maps for Italy are tested against the available data on ground shaking. The results of comparison between predicted macroseismic intensities and those reported for past earthquakes (in the time interval from 1000 to 2014 year) show that models provide rather conservative estimates, which tend to over-estimate seismic hazard at the ground shaking levels below the MCS intensity IX. Only exception is represented by the neo-deterministic maps associated with a fixed return period of 475 or 2475 years, which provide a better fit to observations, at the cost of model consistent 10% or 2% cases of exceedance respectively. In terms of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness of fit criterion, although all of the eight hazard maps differ significantly from the distribution of the observed ground shaking reported in the available Italian databases, the NDSHA approach appears to outscore significantly the PSHA one.