Downburst Prediction Applications of Meteorological Geostationary Satellites

TL;DR

This paper evaluates and updates the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index (MWPI) for predicting convective storm downbursts using GOES satellite data, demonstrating its operational effectiveness and validation across different US regions.

Contribution

The paper provides an updated assessment of the MWPI algorithm, showcases recent case studies, and introduces a brightness temperature difference method for downburst prediction.

Findings

MWPI effectively predicts downburst risk in operational settings.

Validation shows high accuracy in the Great Plains and Mid-Atlantic regions.

BTD method identifies regions prone to downbursts due to dry air entrainment.

Abstract

A suite of products has been developed and evaluated to assess hazards presented by convective storm downbursts derived from the current generation of Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) (13-15). The existing suite of GOES downburst prediction products employs the GOES sounder to calculate risk based on conceptual models of favorable environmental profiles for convective downburst generation. A diagnostic nowcasting product, the Microburst Windspeed Potential Index (MWPI), is designed to infer attributes of a favorable downburst environment: 1) the presence of large convective available potential energy (CAPE), and 2) the presence of a surface-based or elevated mixed layer with a steep temperature lapse rate and vertical relative humidity gradient. These conditions foster intense convective downdrafts upon the interaction of sub-saturated air in the elevated or sub-cloud mixed layer with the storm precipitation core. This paper provides an updated assessment of the MWPI algorithm, presents recent case studies demonstrating effective operational use of the MWPI product over the Atlantic coastal region, and presents validation results for the United States Great Plains and Mid-Atlantic coastal region. In addition, an application of the brightness temperature difference (BTD) between GOES imager water vapor (6.5{\mu}m) and thermal infrared (11{\mu}m) channels that identifies regions where downbursts are likely to develop, due to mid-tropospheric dry air entrainment, will be outlined.