Fooled by bursts. A Goal per Minute model for the World Cup

TL;DR

This paper analyzes goal scoring patterns in FIFA World Cup matches, revealing distinct scoring rate behaviors in the first and second halves, and introduces a new goal-per-minute model based on empirical data.

Contribution

It presents a novel model distinguishing scoring rates in halves, updating previous literature with new empirical insights from The Economist dataset.

Findings

First half scoring rate is approximately constant.

Second half scoring rate increases linearly with time.

The model improves understanding of goal timing in World Cup matches.

Abstract

On the occasion of the last FIFA World Cup in Brazil, The Economist published a plot depicting how many goals have been scored in all World Cup competitions until present, minute by minute. The plot was followed by a naive and poorly grounded qualitative analysis. In the present article we use The Economist dataset to check its conclusions, update previous results from literature and offer a new model. In particular, it will be shown that first and second half game have different scoring rates. In the first half the scoring rate can be considered constant. In the second it increases linearly with time.