Re-examining the main asteroid belt as the primary source of ancient lunar craters

TL;DR

This study uses Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate whether the main asteroid belt could have been the primary source of ancient lunar craters, finding it unlikely due to the overproduction of large basins.

Contribution

The paper provides a quantitative analysis showing the main asteroid belt's size-frequency distribution is inconsistent with the lunar cratering record, challenging previous hypotheses.

Findings

Main asteroid belt impactors likely overproduce large lunar basins.

The E-belt hypothesis has a low probability of matching observed crater densities.

Impactors had a similar size distribution to the current asteroid belt but fewer megabasins.

Abstract

It has been hypothesized that the impactors that created the majority of the observable craters on the ancient lunar highlands were derived from the main asteroid belt in such a way that preserved their size-frequency distribution. A more limited version of this hypothesis, dubbed the E-belt hypothesis, postulates that a destabilized contiguous inner extension of the main asteroid belt produced a bombardment limited to those craters younger than Nectaris basin. We investigate these hypotheses with a Monte Carlo code called the Cratered Terrain Evolution Model (CTEM). We find that matching the observed number of lunar highlands craters with Dc~100 km requires that the total number of impacting asteroids with Di>10 km be no fewer than 4x10-6 km-2. However, this required mass of impactors has <1% chance of producing only a single basin larger than the ~1200 km Imbrium basin; instead, these simulations are likely to produce more large basins than are observed on the Moon. This difficulty in reproducing the lunar highlands cratering record with a main asteroid belt SFD arises because the main belt is relatively abundant in the objects that produce these "megabasins" that are larger than Imbrium. We also find that the main asteroid belt SFD has <16% chance of producing Nectarian densities of Dc>64 km craters while not producing a crater larger than Imbrium, as required by the E-belt hypothesis. These results suggest that the lunar highlands were unlikely to have been bombarded by a population whose size-frequency distribution resembles that of the currently observed main asteroid belt. We suggest that the population of impactors that cratered the lunar highlands had a somewhat similar size-frequency distribution as the modern main asteroid belt, but had a smaller ratio of objects capable of producing megabasins compared to objects capable of producing ~100 km craters.