Waiting time distribution of solar energetic particle events modeled with a non-stationary Poisson process

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the waiting time distributions of solar energetic particle events using a non-stationary Poisson process, revealing power-law behaviors and the influence of solar phenomena like CIRs and shock waves.

Contribution

It introduces a generalized non-stationary Poisson model for SEP event waiting times, linking power-law tails to the event rate distribution.

Findings

SEP WTDs exhibit power-law tails with specific indices.

Broken power-law WTDs in SEEs are influenced by CIR modulation.

The model connects the power-law tail to the event rate distribution.

Abstract

We present a study of the waiting time distributions (WTDs) of solar energetic particle (SEP) events observed with the spacecraft $WIND$ and $GOES$. Both the WTDs of solar electron events (SEEs) and solar proton events (SPEs) display a power-law tail $\sim \Delta t^{-\gamma}$. The SEEs display a broken power-law WTD. The power-law index is $\gamma_{1} =$ 0.99 for the short waiting times ($<$70 hours) and $\gamma_{2} =$ 1.92 for large waiting times ($>$100 hours). The break of the WTD of SEEs is probably due to the modulation of the corotating interaction regions (CIRs). The power-law index $\gamma \sim$ 1.82 is derived for the WTD of SPEs that is consistent with the WTD of type II radio bursts, indicating a close relationship between the shock wave and the production of energetic protons. The WTDs of SEP events can be modeled with a non-stationary Poisson process which was proposed to understand the waiting time statistics of solar flares (Wheatland 2000; Aschwanden $\&$ McTiernan 2010). We generalize the method and find that, if the SEP event rate $\lambda = 1/\Delta t$ varies as the time distribution of event rate $f(\lambda) = A \lambda^{-\alpha}exp(-\beta \lambda)$, the time-dependent Poisson distribution can produce a power-law tail WTD $\sim \Delta t^{\alpha - 3}$, where $0 \leq \alpha < 2$.