A new SATIRE-S spectral solar irradiance reconstruction for solar cycles 21--23 and its implications for stratospheric ozone

TL;DR

This paper presents a comprehensive, uncertainty-estimated spectral solar irradiance reconstruction covering three solar cycles, compares it with other models and observations, and assesses its impact on stratospheric ozone modeling.

Contribution

It provides the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction for three solar cycles with uncertainty estimates and compares its variability with other models and observations.

Findings

SATIRE-S shows similar cycle behavior to NRLSSI below 242 nm.

Between 242 and 310 nm, SATIRE-S variability is nearly half of NRLSSI.

Different SSI datasets lead to contrasting ozone trend predictions in models.

Abstract

We present a revised and extended total and spectral solar irradiance (SSI) reconstruction, which includes a wavelength-dependent uncertainty estimate, spanning the last three solar cycles using the SATIRE-S model. The SSI reconstruction covers wavelengths between 115 and 160,000 nm and all dates between August 1974 and October 2009. This represents the first full-wavelength SATIRE-S reconstruction to cover the last three solar cycles without data gaps and with an uncertainty estimate. SATIRE-S is compared with the NRLSSI model and SORCE/SOLSTICE ultraviolet (UV) observations. SATIRE-S displays similar cycle behaviour to NRLSSI for wavelengths below 242 nm and almost twice the variability between 242 and 310 nm. During the decline of last solar cycle, between 2003 and 2008, SSI from SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 and 10 typically displays more than three times the variability of SATIRE-S between 200 and 300 nm. All three datasets are used to model changes in stratospheric ozone within a 2D atmospheric model for a decline from high solar activity to solar minimum. The different flux changes result in different modelled ozone trends. Using NRLSSI leads to a decline in mesospheric ozone, while SATIRE-S and SORCE/SOLSTICE result in an increase. Recent publications have highlighted increases in mesospheric ozone when considering version 10 SORCE/SOLSTICE irradiances. The recalibrated SORCE/SOLSTICE version 12 irradiances result in a much smaller mesospheric ozone response than when using version 10 and now similar in magnitude to SATIRE-S. This shows that current knowledge of variations in spectral irradiance is not sufficient to warrant robust conclusions concerning the impact of solar variability on the atmosphere and climate.