Error estimates for the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model

TL;DR

This paper evaluates various strategies for estimating extrapolation errors in the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock nuclear model, providing insights into the impact of key fit data on predictions for nuclei and neutron stars.

Contribution

It systematically compares five different error estimation strategies within the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock framework for nuclear physics.

Findings

Uncertainty estimates vary significantly depending on the strategy used.

Key fit data like binding energies and radii influence model predictions.

The model's predictive power is assessed for diverse nuclear systems.

Abstract

There are many complementing strategies to estimate the extrapolation errors of a model which was calibrated in least-squares fits. We consider the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock model for nuclear structure and dynamics and exemplify the following five strategies: uncertainties from statistical analysis, covariances between observables, trends of residuals, variation of fit data, dedicated variation of model parameters. This gives useful insight into the impact of the key fit data as they are: binding energies, charge r.m.s. radii, and charge formfactor. Amongst others, we check in particular the predictive value for observables in the stable nucleus $^{208}$Pb, the super-heavy element $^{266}$Hs, $r$-process nuclei, and neutron stars.