A comparison of reconstruction methods for the estimation of CME kinematics based on SECCHI/HI observations

TL;DR

This paper compares various reconstruction methods for estimating CME kinematics from STEREO/HI observations, assessing their accuracy and limitations for space weather prediction.

Contribution

It evaluates the performance of different CME reconstruction techniques using real data and discusses their effectiveness in forecasting CME arrival times at Earth.

Findings

Different methods show varying accuracy in CME speed estimation.

Limitations in tracking CMEs beyond certain distances affect prediction accuracy.

Ambient solar wind conditions influence CME evolution and modeling results.

Abstract

A study of the kinematics and arrival times of CMEs at Earth, derived from time-elongation maps (J-maps) constructed from STEREO/Heliospheric Imager (HI) observations, provides an opportunity to understand the heliospheric evolution of CMEs in general. We implement various reconstruction techniques, based on the use of time-elongation profiles of propagating CMEs viewed from single or multiple vantage points, to estimate the dynamics of three geo-effective CMEs. We use the kinematic properties, derived from analysis of the elongation profiles, as inputs to the Drag Based Model for the distance beyond which the CMEs cannot be tracked unambiguously in the J-maps. The ambient solar wind into which these CMEs, which travel with different speeds, are launched, is different. Therefore, these CMEs will evolve differently throughout their journey from the Sun to 1 AU. We associate the CMEs, identified and tracked in the J-maps, with signatures observed in situ near 1 AU by the WIND spacecraft. By deriving the kinematic properties of each CME, using a variety of existing methods, we assess the relative performance of each method for the purpose of space weather forecasting. We discuss the limitations of each method, and identify the major constraints in predicting the arrival time of CMEs near 1 AU using heliospheric imager observations.