Mapping physiological suitability limits of malaria in Africa under climate change

TL;DR

This study maps current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa, revealing shifts in high-risk areas due to climate change and emphasizing targeted control strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed model of malaria transmission suitability incorporating nonlinear temperature responses, providing updated spatial predictions under climate change.

Findings

Larger current suitable area for malaria than previously thought

Future climate may increase overall suitability but reduce the most optimal zones

High-risk transmission areas are projected to shift geographically within Africa

Abstract

We mapped current and future temperature suitability for malaria transmission in Africa using a published model that incorporates nonlinear physiological responses to temperature of the mosquito vector Anopheles gambiae and the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum. We found that a larger area of Africa currently experiences the ideal temperature for transmission than previously supposed. Under future climate projections, we predicted a modest increase in the overall area suitable for malaria transmission, but a net decrease in the most suitable area. Combined with population density projections, our maps suggest that areas with temperatures suitable for year-round, highest risk transmission will shift from coastal West Africa to the Albertine Rift between Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda, while areas with seasonal transmission suitability will shift toward sub-Saharan coastal areas. Mapping temperature suitability places important bounds on malaria transmissibility and, along with local level demographic, socioeconomic, and ecological factors, can indicate where resources may be best spent on malaria control.