Stability of Epidemic Models over Directed Graphs: A Positive Systems Approach

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the stability of epidemic spread models over directed networks using positive systems theory, establishing conditions for disease eradication or persistence, and introduces a game-theoretic perspective for infection dynamics.

Contribution

It provides novel stability proofs for epidemic models on directed graphs and introduces a game-theoretic framework for infection spread dynamics.

Findings

Global stability of disease-free state when curing rates are high

Existence and stability conditions for endemic states in weakly connected networks

Distributed conditions for convergence to disease-free state

Abstract

We study the stability properties of a susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) diffusion model, so-called the $n$-intertwined Markov model, over arbitrary directed network topologies. As in the majority of the work on infection spread dynamics, this model exhibits a threshold phenomenon. When the curing rates in the network are high, the disease-free state is the unique equilibrium over the network. Otherwise, an endemic equilibrium state emerges, where some infection remains within the network. Using notions from positive systems theory, {we provide novel proofs for the global asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points in both cases over strongly connected networks based on the value of the basic reproduction number, a fundamental quantity in the study of epidemics.} When the network topology is weakly connected, we provide conditions for the existence, uniqueness, and global asymptotic stability of an endemic state, and we study the stability of the disease-free state. Finally, we demonstrate that the $n$-intertwined Markov model can be viewed as a best-response dynamical system of a concave game among the nodes. This characterization allows us to cast new infection spread dynamics; additionally, we provide a sufficient condition for the global convergence to the disease-free state, which can be checked in a distributed fashion. Several simulations demonstrate our results.