A Mathematical Model of Flavescence Dor\'ee Epidemiology

TL;DR

This paper develops a nonlinear ODE model for Flavescence dorée spread in vineyards, analyzing how hotbed severity influences disease dynamics and suggesting intervention strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive epidemiological model incorporating transmission, latency, recovery, and control measures, with bifurcation analysis revealing critical thresholds for disease spread.

Findings

Hotbed severity causes bifurcations in disease dynamics.

Multiple equilibria can lead to sudden vineyard deterioration.

Intervention strategies can be guided by model bifurcation points.

Abstract

Flavescence dor\'ee (FD) is a disease of grapevine transmitted by an insect vector, $Scaphoideus$ $titanus$ Ball. At present, no prophylaxis exists, so mandatory control procedures (e.g. removal of infected plants, and insecticidal sprays to avoid transmission) are in place in Italy and other European countries. We propose a model of the epidemiology of FD by taking into account the different aspects involved into the transmission process (acquisition of the disease, latency and expression of symptoms, recovery rate, removal and replacement of infected plants, insecticidal treatments, and the effect of hotbeds). The model was constructed as a system of first order nonlinear ODEs in four compartment variables. We perform a bifurcation analysis of the equilibria of the model using the severity of the hotbeds as the control parameter. Depending on the non-dimensional grapevine density of the vineyard we find either a single family of equilibria in which the health of the vineyard gradually deteriorates for progressively more severe hotbeds, or multiple equilibria that give rise to sudden transitions from a nearly healthy vineyard to a severely deteriorated one when the severity of the hotbeds crosses a critical value. These results suggest some lines of intervention for limiting the spread of the disease.