Opinion formation in an open system and the spiral of silence

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new sociological model of the spiral of silence in open systems, showing how opinion expression diminishes with majority disagreement and how leader influence can have lasting effects.

Contribution

It presents a novel dynamic model of opinion formation incorporating openness and leader influence, extending previous static or closed-system models.

Findings

Opinion expression probability decreases with majority opinion difference.

Leader influence can have long-lasting effects on public opinion.

Open system dynamics affect the persistence of opinion differences.

Abstract

A new model is formulated of the sociological effect of the spiral of silence, introduced by Elisabeth Noelle-Neumann in 1974. The probability that a new opinion is openly expressed decreases with the difference between this new opinion and the perceived opinion of the majority. We also assume that the system is open, i.e. some people enter and some leave during the process of the opinion formation. An influence of a leader is simulated by a comparison of two runs of the simulation, where the leader has different opinion in each run. The difference of the mean expressed opinions in these two runs persists long after the leader's leave.