Predictability Horizon of Oceanic Rogue Waves

TL;DR

This paper establishes a statistically-converged predictability time-scale for oceanic rogue waves, showing it depends on sea state and wave height, which aids in assessing prediction validity and has broader implications.

Contribution

It introduces the first statistically-converged predictability time-scale for oceanic rogue waves, linking it to sea state and wave height, and provides a quantitative metric for rogue wave formation mechanisms.

Findings

Predictability time-scale depends on sea state and wave height.

Established a statistically-converged predictability metric.

Implications for rogue wave prediction in optics and plasma physics.

Abstract

Prediction is a central goal and a yet-unresolved challenge in the investigation of oceanic rogue waves. Here we define a horizon of predictability for oceanic rogue waves and derive, via extensive computational experiments, the first statistically-converged predictability time-scale for these structures. We show that this time-scale is a function of the sea state as well as the strength (i.e. overall height) of the expected rogue wave. The presented predictability time-scale establishes a quantitative metric on the combined temporal effect of the variety of mechanisms that together lead to the formation of a rogue wave, and is crucial for the assessment of validity of rogue waves predictions, as well as for the critical evaluation of results from the widely-used model equations. The methodology and presented results can have similar implications in other systems admitting rogue waves, e.g. nonlinear optics and plasma physics.