Effect of Group Means on the Probability of Consensus

TL;DR

This study investigates how the difference between group means and the overall population mean influences the likelihood of consensus and attitude change within groups, revealing that larger deviations reduce consensus and affect polarization.

Contribution

It provides new insights into how group mean deviations from the grand mean impact consensus probability and polarization direction after disagreement.

Findings

Low consensus probability when group means differ from the grand mean.

Depolarization occurs when small differences among group members are present.

Groups deviating most from the population tend to cause disagreement.

Abstract

In this study, groups who could not reach a consensus were investigated using the group polarization paradigm. The purpose was to explore the conditions leading to intragroup disagreement and attitude change following disagreement among 269 participants. Analysis indicated that the probability of consensus was low when the group means differed from the grand mean of the entire sample. When small differences among group members were found, depolarization (reverse direction of polarization) followed disagreement. These results suggested the groups which deviated most from the population tendency were the most likely to cause within-group disagreement, while within-group variances determined the direction of attitude change following disagreement within the group.