Stylized facts in Brazilian vote distributions
Angelo Mondaini Calv\~ao, Nuno Crokidakis, Celia Anteneodo

TL;DR
This paper analyzes Brazilian election vote distributions over several decades, revealing non-universal power-law behaviors that evolve over time and proposing a model linking these patterns to electorate feedback mechanisms.
Contribution
It introduces a multi-species nonlinear differential equation model to explain the non-universal power-law exponents in vote distributions and their temporal evolution.
Findings
Vote distributions follow a scale-free power-law regime.
The power-law exponent varies with time and is characteristic of the electorate.
The model links the exponent to the degree of feedback among voters.
Abstract
Elections, specially in countries such as Brazil with an electorate of the order of 100 million people, yield large-scale data-sets embodying valuable information on the dynamics through which individuals influence each other and make choices. In this work we perform an extensive analysis of data sets available for Brazilian proportional elections of legislators and city councillors throughout the period 1970-2012, which embraces two distinct political regimes: a military dictatorship and a democratic phase. Through the distribution of the number of candidates receiving votes, we perform a comparative analysis of different elections in the same calendar and as a function of time. The distributions present a scale-free regime with a power-law exponent which is not universal and appears to be characteristic of the electorate. Moreover, we observe that …
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